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Section
Appendix
8.2

Timelines

In this section, we will explore scenarios regarding the speed at which AI might reach advanced capabilities, including super-human capabilities in some or many areas. We also consider the implications this would have for the economy.

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Review Questions

What is meant by AI takeoff?

Answer:

AI takeoff refers to the idea of a rapid improvement in the capabilities of AI systems, leading to superhuman capabilities across a broad range of tasks.

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Explain how human-level AI might cause explosive economic growth.

Answer:

Human-level AI can substitute for human labor, increasing the effective economic population. Some argue that this would enable unprecedented economic growth, according to growth theories that link population to economic output.

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Why is there uncertainty about when advanced AIs capable of human-level performance might be created?

Answer:

There is high uncertainty among experts about timelines for human-level AI. Some AI researchers have been surprised at the pace of progress and there are reasons to believe this progress will continue in the next few years, so there are no definitive reasons to rule out advanced AIs arriving soon. However, it also unclear whether additional fundamental research breakthroughs are needed and how difficult these might be.

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